When can multi-fragment 2D/3D registration be trusted? Calibrated certification and uncertainty-driven view planning for pelvic fracture fluoroscopy

arXiv:2611.05618v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Registering a segmented CT to fluoroscopy can locate every fracture fragment but can guide surgery only when trusted. After each shot, our closed loop registers all fragments, bounds their errors with a calibrated sandwich covariance, flags implausible or ambiguous ones, and stops or plans the next view. On simulated fluoroscopy of 60 held-out fracture CTs with realistic image uncertainty, 95% bounds covered 83% of unflagged fragments and 91% of those within 5mm, but from the second view on 14% failed by over 5mm, a third with bounds of at most 2mm. A fragment's shift when a view was added separated tightly bounded failures best (exploratory; AUC 0.94, bound 0.81). Requiring that the newest view moved no fragment beyond its bound, preferred post hoc, lowered false stops at 2mm from 23% to 6% overall, with 345 instead of 362 correct ones but more trajectories uncertified; delaying the stop did not, and other signals at equal acceptance left 10-15% false. With a segmentation error shared by all views (median Dice 0.89), 21% of this rule's stops were false against 10% without it (15 cases; exploratory). Minimax planning certified sooner than the clinical protocol without the check (4.20 versus 4.72 shots, Holm p