Variational Splines and Generalized Gaussian Processes

arXiv:2611.06233v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tikhonov regularization, kriging, and Gaussian-process regression share the same algorithm because, for a linear inverse problem with a Gaussian prior and Gaussian noise, the minimum-mean-square-error (MMSE) estimator is the solution of a regularized least-squares problem. We show that this equivalence survives the passage from vectors to generalized functions: the regularized least-squares estimators become generalized splines, and the Gaussian random vectors become generalized Gaussian processes (GGPs) on the dual of a nuclear space. A whitening operator $\mathrm{L}: \mathcal{S} \to L_2$ specifies both the native Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}_\mathrm{L} \subset \mathcal{S}'$ of the splines and a family of GGPs, which solve a stochastic differential equation subject to boundary conditions. We prove that the Gaussian spaces of these processes are congruent to the core $\mathrm{L}^\ast(L_2)$ of the native space, and that their MMSE estimators from finitely many linear measurements are generalized splines. Our framework extends the classical correspondences of Kimeldorf-Wahba, Parzen and Kailath in two respects: our estimators form a broader class that includes generalized functions, and we give a proper Bayesian treatment of the case where the null space of $\mathrm{L}$ is non-trivial. The framework gives a precise meaning to statements such as ``fractional splines are the optimal estimators of fractional Brownian motion,'' and it provides a rigorous Bayesian formulation of infinite-dimensional linear inverse problems.