The Causal Description Gap: Information-Theoretic Separations Across Pearl's Hierarchy

arXiv:2605.02177v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Pearl's causal hierarchy shows that observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries are qualitatively distinct. We ask a quantitative version of this question: how many additional bits are needed to specify higher-rung causal answers once lower-rung answers are known? We formalize this via query-class description length, the Kolmogorov complexity of the answers a structural causal model (SCM) gives to a class of queries, with system size given. Our main construction gives acyclic SCMs on $n$ binary variables whose common observational distribution has constant description length, while single-variable intervention answers can require $\Theta(n^2)$ additional bits. For SCMs with independent noises, fixed finite gate-schema and noise libraries, and at most $d$ parents per variable, a degree-sensitive upper bound gives an observational-interventional gap of at most $O(nd\log(en/d)+n\log n)$. This makes the quadratic construction order-optimal in the dense regime and a rooted-tree construction order-optimal for bounded indegree. The quadratic separation persists under $\varepsilon$-accurate total-variation descriptions for every fixed $\varepsilon