On the Mechanism of Multi-Cluster System Separation Under Extreme Events

arXiv:2610.19918v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Historical blackout events demonstrate that, under complex multi-event contingencies, interconnected power systems can split into multiple areas exhibiting distinct dynamic behavior while remaining physically connected. This work provides a rationale for this phenomenon. Typical N-1 contingency analysis leads to a response dominated by a single unstable mode, supporting the two-cluster conjecture used by transient stability assessment tools such as the SIME method. However, extreme events, often involving cascading N-k contingencies, can excite multiple unstable modes. We establish a proof of concept based on linear modal expansion to show how such concurrent excitation leads to multiple coherent areas. The resulting behavior is illustrated through simulations on the standard WSCC 9-bus, IEEE 14-bus, and IEEE 39-bus systems, demonstrating the limitations of conventional two-cluster representations under extreme events.