LCM-Promo: An LLM-Based Uplift Model for Promotion Allocation

arXiv:2610.37570v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present LCM-Promo, an LLM-based uplift model for promotion allocation. LCM-Promo is a task-specific Large Commerce Model (LCM): a finetuned LLM trained on transactional commerce data to predict user intent and promotion response. It learns monotonic promotion-response curves from production logs by interpreting single-token outputs as conversion-threshold probabilities, while conditioning on session context such as day and delivery shift. In a production A/B test on churn reactivation, LCM-Promo increased conversion by 1% and reduced promotion cost by 6% relative to the Segment-EMA production baseline.