Circular interval-valued regression with application to wind direction: A cylindrical approach

arXiv:2611.09565v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many real-world datasets are inherently interval-valued, yet standard statistical methods are typically designed for point observations. Furthermore, intervals that are circular in nature may naturally exist. In this paper, we introduce a cylindrical regression framework for interval-valued circular data, addressing the joint challenges of the periodical nature and measurement uncertainty within the observed circular intervals. The proposed model accommodates a circular interval-valued response variable and both circular and linear covariates using a centre-range approach. To estimate the model, a maximum likelihood approach is proposed. The performance of the proposed estimation procedure is demonstrated through a simulation study. Application to two real-world datasets from a wind farm in South Africa and a weather station in Brazil further substantiates the model's practical value.