Conformal Prediction for Time-Dependent PDEs
arXiv:2611.08409v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is crucial in scientific machine learning, where models inform safety-critical task…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
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BUMP: Brief Unexpected Mid-Interpolation Peak
arXiv:2611.08182v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We identify an intriguing phenomenon when linearly interpolating between permutation-aligned neural networks: …
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Doubly-robust causal inference for multi-valued treatment regimes with recurrent neural networks
arXiv:2611.08077v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a doubly-robust method to estimate the causal effects of multi-valued treatment regimes on patient …
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Optimal Learning in Games with Arbitrary Delays: Best-of-Both-Worlds for Self-Play and Adversarial Opponents
arXiv:2611.07773v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study learning in zero-sum games with delayed feedback. We introduce Multi-Anchor Optimistic Online Mirror …
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Identification and Bounding of Joint Expectation over Potential Outcomes
arXiv:2611.07536v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The joint expectation of functions of potential outcomes $(Y_1,Y_0)$ is a fundamental quantity in causal infer…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Changepoint localization via nested exchangeability tests: from point estimates to confidence intervals
arXiv:2611.07399v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study distribution-free uncertainty quantification for a changepoint estimate in an offline setting. We obs…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Last-Iterate Convergence of Stochastic Gradient Methods for Unbounded Problems
arXiv:2611.07334v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Last-iterate convergence guarantees for stochastic gradient methods have attracted significant attention as pr…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Neural Realized Measures: Forecast-Supervised Intraday Aggregation for Volatility Forecasting
arXiv:2611.07287v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: High-frequency volatility forecasting typically separates measurement from prediction: intraday observations a…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Satisficing as competitive Bayesian weighting: a minimal model of goal-directed choice under an unattained target
arXiv:2611.07270v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Animals and humans often do not maximize; they act relative to goals (aspiration levels) that are frequently n…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Double Machine Learning for Panel Data: Identification, Specification, and a Bank Regulation Effect
arXiv:2611.07249v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper examines robustness and causal interpretation of panel estimates using double/debiased machine lear…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Unifying Central Flow, Rod Flow, and the Edge Coupling
arXiv:2611.08358v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: At the edge of stability, the iterates of gradient descent oscillate along the sharp directions of the Hessian. …
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Series-wise Cross-validation for Global Time Series Forecasting
arXiv:2611.08252v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We consider the problem of cross-validation (CV) in time series forecasting, with a focus on global forecasting …
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Patch Attention Wisely: Understanding Patch Length in Attention-Based Forecasting
arXiv:2611.08160v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Attention-based time series forecasters commonly group consecutive observations into patches. Patch length is kn…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Identifying Neural Dynamics Using Nonlinear Interventional State Space Models
arXiv:2611.08113v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: State-space models (SSMs) recover low-dimensional latent dynamics from high-dimensional observations, but latent…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Joint Modeling of Conditional Mean and Variability in Multilevel Functional Data: Application to Postprandial Glucose Trajectories in the AEGIS Study
arXiv:2611.07937v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Functional data analysis provides a framework for studying time-varying associations between covariates and high…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Network Effect Decomposition for Causal Effect Estimation under Network Interference
arXiv:2611.07879v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating causal effects from observational network data requires accounting for both individual treatment and …
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Task-Calibrated Random Features via Influence-Based Error Cancellation
arXiv:2611.07209v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Random features approximate kernel integrals by Monte Carlo, yet only selected frequency-sampling errors affect …
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
ShapleyOG: Fast Adaptive Shapley Value Estimation with Odd Gaussian Processes
arXiv:2611.07173v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Shapley values are a central tool for attribution in machine learning. Since their exact computation requires ev…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
Bayesian Tensor Train Kernel Machines with Automatic Model Complexity Inference
arXiv:2611.07129v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Tensor Network (TN) kernel machines accelerate supervised learning by using low-rank TNs to reduce computation a…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML
ToroFit: Fitting Wedge Sums of Tori to High-Dimensional Data
arXiv:2611.06990v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Data arising in scientific applications often exhibits complex nonlinear structure. Identifying and parameterizi…
EnglisharXiv stat.ML